Ciao tifosi!

The 108th Giro d’Italia kicks off this Friday, and with no Tadej Pogačar in sight, the peloton might just get their break. In this edition, I’m breaking down the first seven days of racing with my predictions for each stage and a few names to watch as the road tilts upwards. From the hilly opener in Albania to the first summit finish in the Apennines, we’ve got punchy finales, an individual time trial, sprint showdowns, and a whole lot of questions about who’s really here to win pink.

Enjoy,
–Rosael

What to Expect in Giro Week One

The 108th Giro d’Italia rolls out this Friday from Durrës, Albania—yes, Albania—marking the start of the first men’s Grand Tour of the year and a rare opportunity for the peloton to breathe a little easier. Why? Because Tadej Pogačar won’t be in the race. After his dominant pink parade last May, the world champ is skipping the Giro, leaving behind a power vacuum that’s made this year’s race feel wide open, or at least a bit less doomed from the start.

Of course, “wide open” is relative. Primož Roglič returns as the clear favorite, aiming to win his second Giro and sixth Grand Tour overall. But he’ll face serious pressure from UAE’s Juan Ayuso, making his Giro debut with one of the strongest teams on paper. Adam Yates, Derek Gee, Michael Storer, Antonio Tiberi, and Richard Carapaz are all eyeing the podium (or more) while the sprinters, led by Mads Pedersen, Kaden Groves, and Olav Kooij, will scrap for stage wins and the points jersey.

This year’s 3,413 km route kicks off with three stages in Albania before crossing the Adriatic into southern Italy. Week 1 features a bit of everything: rolling sprints, a short individual time trial, a summit finish, and the sense that everyone’s waiting for something worse. Because worse is coming.

Week 2 brings gravel—30 kilometers of it across Tuscany’s white roads, borrowed from Strade Bianche—and a gradual grind northward. Week 3 is where the real damage happens with legendary climbs like the Colle delle Finestre and Monte Grappa before the race finally, and mercifully, ends in Rome on June 1.

Only two individual time trials (totaling 42.3 km) mean this Giro won’t be won against the clock. It’ll be won (and lost) on the climbs, in the sterrato, and possibly even in the wind and rain. But before the fireworks of the final week, we’ve got a somewhat tame and open Week 1 ahead. Let’s take a look.

• 2025 Giro d’Italia Startlist by FirstCycling

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Stage-by-Stage Predictions: Giro Week 1

Themes to Watch

• Expect a game of hot potato with the maglia rosa. The pink jersey will likely change hands multiple times over the first seven stages. With a hilly opener, an early time trial, and no clear incentive for the big teams to defend the lead just yet, don’t be surprised if we see three or even four different leaders by the time the race hits the mountains.

• Will UAE play decoy? Juan Ayuso is the team’s top GC hope, but don’t rule out an early move from Isaac Del Toro—or even Jay Vine—if UAE wants to grab the jersey without showing their full hand.

Stage 1 – Durrës to Tiranë, 160 km (Hilly)

Prediction: Wout van Aert takes the first pink jersey.
This is a classic Giro opener because it is sprint-ish, but not easy. Three categorized climbs will shake out the pure sprinters, and the finale sets up perfectly for a puncheur or an all-rounder who wants to make a statement. Enter Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike), who has the kick, the timing, and the motivation after missing last year’s start and failing to win a single one-day race this spring.

If UAE Team Emirates-XRG is feeling frisky, they could go for pink early with a rider like Isaac Del Toro while Juan Ayuso bides his time.

As for an outside bet? Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) could go rogue if the group gets reduced enough. Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninck) has the punch to surprise. Even Romain Bardet (Picnic PostNL) might sniff a farewell glory day if things get wild late.

Stage 2 – Tiranë to Tiranë, 13.7 km (Individual Time Trial)

Prediction: Josh Tarling wins, Ayuso shows his cards.
The first of two ITTs is short, technical, and not flat, but also not selective enough to wreck GC ambitions this early. Josh Tarling (INEOS) has the power and poise to take the win here.

Ayuso will want to show he’s made gains against the clock. If he finishes within five seconds of Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), take note. And if Wout van Aert wins Stage 1, he could defend pink with a solid effort here.

Also worth watching: Brandon McNulty (UAE), Thymen Arensman (INEOS), and Derek Gee (Premier Tech)—all strong time trialists who could slide into early GC contention.

Stage 3 – Vlorë to Vlorë, 160 km (Hilly)

Prediction: Pidcock solo raid, or Derek Gee from the break.
With a serious climb mid-stage (Qafa e Llogarasë: 10.5 km at 7.4%) and a fast, technical descent, this one’s for the thrill-seekers. It’s too hard for most sprinters and too soon for the GC favorites to go full gas, but it’s perfect for a Pidcock flyer.

Gee is built for this, too. The Canadian is strong, savvy, and still a bit under the radar. Either way, the pink jersey will likely change hands.

Stage 4 – Alberobello to Lecce, 189 km (Flat)

Prediction: Kaden Groves wins the drag race.
Back in Italy and back to basics: this is a clean sprint day, and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) has the best mix of top-end speed and Giro know-how. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike) will challenge, but Groves’s leadout team is dialed for this.

But don’t underestimate Milan Fretin (Cofidis) or Giovanni Lonardi (Polti-VisitMalta)—guys who’ve shown flashes of speed this season and might be looking for their big moment.

Stage 5 – Ceglie Messapica to Matera, 151 km (Flat-ish)

Prediction: Mads Pedersen grits it out.
A sprint stage with teeth. The late climb and uphill drag to the line will tempt a breakaway, but Lidl-Trek will want to set up Pedersen, who can outlast the other fast men when things get bumpy.

This could also be where we start to see who’s serious about going after the ciclamino points jersey.

Also keep an eye on: Corbin Strong (Premier Tech) and Luca Mozzato (Arkéa-B&B), who are riders who perform well in messy, punchy finales.

Stage 6 – Potenza to Napoli, 227 km (Flat)

Prediction: Kooij times it right, or someone steals it late.
This is the longest stage of the race, and fatigue, road furniture, and city chaos could unravel sprint plans. If Kooij gets the timing right, he has the muscle to win.

But it’s just as likely that someone escapes late. Taco van der Hoorn (Intermarché-Wanty), Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Davide Bais (Polti), or even Davide Formolo (Movistar) could capitalize if the sprinters’ teams lose control.

This one’s volatile. Expect the unexpected.

Stage 7 – Castel di Sangro to Tagliacozzo, 168 km (Mountain)

Prediction: Storer makes a GC statement, or Arensman grabs pink.
The first summit finish of the Giro, and it’s deceptively brutal. A steep ramp in the final kilometers (2 km at 10%) means gaps will open. Expect a big break, but the GC guys will want to test each other.

This is where Michael Storer (Tudor) might confirm he’s the real deal. But Thymen Arensman (INEOS) could take pink if Roglič or Ayuso hold back and choose to avoid the weight of the maglia rosa a little longer.

Also in the hunt: Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), and Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty). Keep an eye on Einer Rubio (Movistar) too; he tends to come alive on days like this.

That’s the outlook for week one: opportunities for the punchy opportunists and the sprinters, and just enough unpredictability to shape the race before the high mountains arrive. We’ll check back in once the GC picture sharpens and the contenders start to reveal themselves. You can find the profiles for each Giro d’Italia 2025 stage here.

• Read Next: In Awe of Pogačar—And Kind of Over It